058
FNUS21 KWNS 171650
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VALID 171700Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...
THE CRITICAL AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHTLY LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO NEARBY AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THIS
REGION WILL EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WESTERLY WINDS, SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH WITH MINIMUM RHS NEAR 10-20%.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THIS AREA ARE ALREADY INDICATING A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
15-20 MPH AND RHS DROPPING INTO THE MID-TEENS. OVER CENTRAL WYOMING,
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MUCH OF CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE STATE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ELEVATED CRITERIA WITH RH
STRUGGLING TO FALL BELOW 30%. THUS, PORTIONS OF THE ELEVATED AREA
WERE TRIMMED TOWARD THE SOUTH COMMENSURATE WITH THE SPATIAL EXTENT
OF THE LOWEST RHS IN THIS AREA. ALL OTHER AREAS REMAIN ON TRACK.
..STEARNS/WILLIAMS.. 03/17/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0122 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE (DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS OVER THE PLAINS
ARE NEAR/BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-MARCH). SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. THE RESULTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OFF DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER REGIONS WITH RECENT WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX TO CENTRAL OK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED (AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 10-15%) FROM WESTERN TX INTO
SOUTHWEST OK UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS WINDS THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH;
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE TYPICALLY UNDER-MIXES THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN DRY
RETURN FLOW REGIMES WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND WEAKER WINDS THAN
ACTUALLY OBSERVED. BASED ON THIS, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS
UNDER THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH, WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A TARGETED CRITICAL RISK AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS
THIS REGION.
..CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WESTERLY 15-20 MPH WINDS OFF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
SUPPORT SEVERAL AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WY SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TX. FORECAST GUIDANCE
SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN RH REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 20% WITH
AREAS OF 15% POSSIBLE. SOLUTIONS THAT TYPICALLY OVER-MIX IN THESE
REGIMES (NOTABLY THE RAP AND HRRR) HINT THAT 20-25 MPH WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY INTO FAR NORTHEAST CO AND PARTS OF THE
NE PANHANDLE WHERE ACTIVE WILDFIRES HAVE BEEN ONGOING IN RECENT
DAYS. CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS
CORRIDOR IS LIMITED DUE TO SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AND POOR ENSEMBLE
AGREEMENT, BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS, OBSERVED TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED FOR THE NEED FOR CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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