692
FNUS22 KWNS 171914
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...EXTREME WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHERN
COLORADO...
A CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING, EXTREME WESTERN NEBRASKA, AND EXTREME NORTHERN COLORADO. IN
THIS AREA, FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH COMBINED WITH RHS OF 10-18% BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE
LARAMIE MOUNTAINS. IN THIS AREA, THE DURATION OF CRITICAL WIND/RH
WILL LIKELY APPROACH 5 OR MORE HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
THE ELEVATED AREA WAS EXPANDED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO PLAINS AND FARTHER INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE LIMITING
FACTORS FOR EXPANSION FARTHER WEST AND NORTH ARE CLOUD COVER AND
EXISTING MARGINAL FUEL RECEPTIVENESS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
PATTERN AND RESULTANT ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION, THIS AREA WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL
EXPANSION AS FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY.
..STEARNS/WILLIAMS.. 03/17/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0144 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
WHICH WILL ESTABLISH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW DISPLACED TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, LEE TROUGHING WILL BECOME MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS CENTRAL MT
TO EASTERN WY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH (80%) IN SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH ACROSS
CENTRAL WY INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHEAST CO. A RESUMPTION
OF WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE
20-25% RANGE BASED ON ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. DRIER/MORE WELL-MIXED
SOLUTIONS HINT AT RH REDUCTIONS AS LOW AS THE 10-15% RANGE, WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST WY). HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BASED ON MODEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES (AROUND
40-50% PROBABILITY OF RH REDUCTIONS BELOW 15%). REGARDLESS,
ANTECEDENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND PRECEDING DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN DRY FUELS (AND/OR HELP CURE FINE FUELS IN
AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED PRECIPITATION) TO SUPPORT THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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