971
ACUS02 KWNS 201640
SWODY2
SPC AC 201638
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
TENNESSEE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO NEAR 1
INCH DIAMETER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
..TENNESSEE INTO THE CAROLINAS
A MODEST MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST WITHIN A BROADER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME ON SATURDAY. MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE OVERLY STRONG WITH THIS SHORTWAVE, WITH AROUND 25-35
KT NOTED IN FORECAST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM, AND STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ABOVE 500 MB WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF AROUND 25
KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST, WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
SEEING LOW 60S DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER, RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT (NEAR -15 C AT 500 MB)
WILL SUPPORT 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE.
GIVEN MODESTLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, COMBINED
WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY PEAK
HEATING, A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL TO AROUND 1
INCH DIAMETER APPEARS POSSIBLE, AND A LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK
HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH THE DAY 2 UPDATE.
..LEITMAN.. 03/20/2026
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