786
ACUS01 KWNS 210531
SWODY1
SPC AC 210529
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO NEAR 1
INCH DIAMETER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION.
..SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
VERY STRONG MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS IS FORCING MEANINGFUL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BEFORE DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES. EARLY THIS MORNING,
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ONE OF THESE FEATURES DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN SD/NE. BY THE START OF THE PERIOD THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS IL/SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHEAST AR, THEN IT WILL
ADVANCE INTO KY/TN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS VA-NORTHERN KY
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND BECOME SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE WEST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUTH OF THIS WIND SHIFT, MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEATING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE TN VALLEY SUCH
THAT 0-3KM LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 7 C/KM BY PEAK HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
APPROACHED, OR BREACHED BY 21Z AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F ACROSS SOUTHEAST KY/EASTERN TN. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAK, OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. FORECAST MIDLEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30-35KT ACROSS THIS REGION AT 500MB,
SO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. IF
ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THEN HAIL ON THE
ORDER OF 1 INCH COULD BE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS THE
SHORT WAVE ADVANCES DOWNSTREAM. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR HAIL WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
..DARROW/WENDT.. 03/21/2026
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