624
ACUS02 KWNS 210602
SWODY2
SPC AC 210601
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY.
..OHIO VALLEY/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AT MID-LEVELS ON SUNDAY, AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S, AS AN ASSOCIATED
JET STREAK TRANSLATES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A MOIST
AIRMASS BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S F. WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG PARTS OF THE
FRONT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS WITH A
SEVERE THREAT MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM CINCINNATI TO PITTSBURGH, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GRADUALLY INCREASE MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE.
FORECASTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL BE VEERED
TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE SURFACE, BUT THAT STRONG SPEED SHEAR WILL
EXIST IN THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 40 TO 50 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.0 TO 7.5
C/KM RANGE SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE SUPERCELL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE EVENT, WHEN CELLS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO BE DISCRETE. A THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS ALSO
EXPECTED. THE WIND-DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ALONG SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS THAT FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A STOUT CAPPING
INVERSION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR.
NEAR THE FRONT IN THE EARLY EVENING, THE CAP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.
THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS THAT CAN INITIATE AND PERSIST.
..BROYLES.. 03/21/2026
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