622
ACUS48 KWNS 210831
SWOD48
SPC AC 210829
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
..DISCUSSION
..TUESDAY/DAY 4 TO THURSDAY/DAY 6
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A DRY AIRMASS IS FORECAST ACROSS
MOST OF THE U.S., WHICH SHOULD BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
MOST AREAS.
ON THURSDAY, A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN U.S., AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO THE PARTS OF THE
GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS, MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT, ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A PASSING MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG AND NEAR A COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME, THE AMOUNT OF SPREAD CONCERNING POTENTIAL OUTCOMES IS
SUBSTANTIAL. AN AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED ONCE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN
TO AGREE MORE, AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES CONCERNING WHERE THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE.
..FRIDAY/DAY 7 AND SATURDAY/DAY 8
ON FRIDAY, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE GULF COAST BY SATURDAY. ISOLATED STORMS WOULD
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
UNCERTAINTY IS SUBSTANTIAL DUE TO THE EXTENDED RANGE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 03/21/2026
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