361
FNUS22 KWNS 211742
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS...PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...
THE CRITICAL AREA WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRE-FRONTAL WIND/RH MEETING NECESSARY THRESHOLDS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL
OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CRITICAL AREA AND ARRIVE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY AROUND SUNSET. THEREAFTER, THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO FAR
WEST TEXAS AS RHS ACROSS THE REGION ALSO DIURNALLY INCREASE. THE
ELEVATED AREA WAS ALSO EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO INCLUDE THE TRANS PECOS REGION AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTION
AS WELL AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER DURING PEAK HEATING.
CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO RETRACTING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
ELEVATED AREA SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
SOMEWHAT WEAK, AS WAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, RHS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. THIS DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS TO PROMOTE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED CONDITIONS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
REGIME. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO CLOUD COVER AND HOW FAR
NORTH THESE CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND, TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED WITH
FUTURE FORECAST ISSUANCES.
..STEARNS.. 03/21/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1236 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN LARGELY FLATTENED UNTIL SOME
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. THE FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY SLOW/STALL
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER LATITUDE.
..TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FIRE WEATHER SETUP WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE RATHER
MODEST AND RH RECOVERY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT BE OVERLY QUICK
TO OCCUR. SOME UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DAMPEN SURFACE
HEATING, ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERN EXTENT. EVEN SO, TEMPERATURES
COULD STILL REACH THE 70S INTO THE 80S. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH STRONGER GUSTS. RH WILL BE THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO, BUT STATE OF FUELS AND THE STRONG
WINDS WOULD STILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HIGH EVEN WITH 15-25%
RH. NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, HOWEVER, IT IS MORE PROBABLE TO SEE
10-20% RH. STRONGER, GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITHIN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND ROLLING PLAINS. THERE, CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.
..KANSAS
WINDS OF AROUND 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS
MUCH OF KANSAS. RH WILL LIKELY BE 25-35% ON ACCOUNT OF UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THAT SAID, DRY GRASSES WILL
SUPPORT IGNITION/SPREAD DUE TO THE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS.
..SOUTHWEST
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS RH FALLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN MANY LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
WEAKER HERE, BUT 10-15 MPH (LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE TERRAIN) WILL
SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN DRY FUELS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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