283
ACUS01 KWNS 220559
SWODY1
SPC AC 220557
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, AND A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION.
.. OVERVIEW
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY TODAY AS FAST
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVES MOVING EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
.. OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS
RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECT INTO THE REGION,
ORIGINATING WITHIN AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND WELL-MIXED AIRMASS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL US. THE KEY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE HOW AGGRESSIVELY MOISTURE RETURNS. STRONG
ANTECEDENT HEATING AND MIXING UPSTREAM MAY LIMIT MOISTENING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, BUT RELATIVELY COOL
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL SUPPORT MODERATE BUOYANCY.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA, WHERE MODEST WARM ADVECTION
AND A WEAKENING CAP FAVOR DEVELOPMENT. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH THE FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE WILL SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT.
LARGE HAIL -- POTENTIALLY GREATER THAN GOLF BALLS -- WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL. DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS MAXIMIZED AND STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN DEVELOP. WITH TIME, THE SURGING COLD FRONT
SHOULD UNDERCUT THUNDERSTORMS, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
ORGANIZED, WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
WILL SUPPORT SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
UNDERCUT, WITH THE TORNADO THREAT TIED CLOSELY TO HOW AGGRESSIVELY
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS.
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT SURGES
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE POST-FRONTAL AND
ELEVATED IN NATURE, BUT GIVEN STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SEVERE HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
LATER STORMS.
..MARSH.. 03/22/2026
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