760
ACUS11 KWNS 222237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222236
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-230030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72...
VALID 222236Z - 230030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. STORMS MOVING EAST WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN WITH TIME. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE MORE PROBABLE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN WW 72 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
SOUTHEASTERN OHIO WHERE STEEPER LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST.
ANAFRONTAL CONVECTION ALSO IS OCCURRING IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
IS MOVING EASTWARD. THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND AS THEY MOVE INTO A COOLER, LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY FORM ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AS VERY SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT APPROACHES THE REGION.
REGIONAL VAD DATA SHOWS STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH A RELATIVELY
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL SPLIT AS IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST OHIO/NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL STEEP IN FAR SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO ADJACENT WEST VIRGINIA/MARYLAND. THERE, WIND DAMAGE WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.
ENVIRONMENTALLY SPEAKING, A DOWNSTREAM WATCH TO THE EAST APPEARS
UNLIKELY THIS EVENING. LOCAL EXTENSIONS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK SHOULD STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION PERSIST.
..WENDT.. 03/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
LAT...LON 39347860 39218052 39368112 39758200 39998213 40228206
40868126 41228070 41467982 41417884 41247809 40557626
39857618 39527709 39347860
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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