797
ACUS11 KWNS 230020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230020
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-230145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF IL/IN/OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73...74...
VALID 230020Z - 230145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73, 74
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO LATE EVENING IN A
PORTION OF THE MIDWEST.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS LARGELY BEEN SUSTAINED ABOUT
80 MILES NORTH OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
OH RIVER. THIS ARC OF ELEVATED STORMS WAS ROOTED NEAR 750 MB PER
ACARS DATA NEAR IND AND APPEARS LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE CORES ACROSS CENTRAL IN
TO CENTRAL OH HAVE HAD GENERALLY MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL MRMS
SIGNATURES WITH SEVERAL SEMI-DISCRETE STRUCTURES. AMPLE SPEED SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL OFFER POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL UP TO AROUND GOLF-BALL SIZE,
INCLUDING LEFT AND RIGHT SPLITS.
FARTHER SOUTH ON THE FRONT, ATTEMPTS AT SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEAR
TO HAVE LARGELY FAILED WITHIN PERSISTENT MLCIN AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT OUTSIDE OF THE UNDERCUTTING BOUNDARY. WITH NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. CURRENT ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL IL WILL PROBABLY BE THE BACK EDGE OF SUSTAINED SEVERE
POTENTIAL AS THEY SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
..GRAMS.. 03/23/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...
LAT...LON 40968294 40868231 39998225 39558231 39128300 38938542
38278775 38228833 38478867 39568852 40428684 40968294
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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