879
ACUS01 KWNS 230054
SWODY1
SPC AC 230052
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUST REMAINS POSSIBLE.
.. 01Z UPDATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THESE STORMS ARE BEING AIDED BY INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AND VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE
COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE 40FS.
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG, STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
RANGING FROM 6 C/KM ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO 8.5 C/KM ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA, AND STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED HAIL
THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL WIND POTENTIAL HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS LOW-LEVELS STABILIZE. HOWEVER,
GIVEN INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AN ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE WIND
REPORT MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS IS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA WHERE BETTER
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GREATEST STORM COVERAGE COINCIDE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #287.
..MARSH.. 03/23/2026
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