513
ACUS11 KWNS 230107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230107
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-230230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0288
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER OHIO VALLEY VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72...
VALID 230107Z - 230230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD TROUGH EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE
ENVIRONMENT FARTHER EAST WILL BECOME LESS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
CONVECTION, HOWEVER.
DISCUSSION...LIFT FROM A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST
CONTINUES TO PROMOTE ELEVATED CONVECTION, BEHIND A COLD FRONT, IN
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A FEW STRONGER CORES HAVE NOTED IN CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN OHIO. OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON THIS
EVENING'S ILN SOUNDING AND AROUND 55 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ON AREA VAD
DATA. THAT SAID, THE OBSERVED SOUNDING AT PIT SHOWED A MODEST 6 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE. CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN SOME
INTENSITY INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT. THIS TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH PRIOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
..WENDT.. 03/23/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 39458125 39468192 39498217 39798215 40698224 41068213
41178121 41247983 41107935 40827925 40117928 39717949
39438033 39458125
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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