146
ACUS11 KWNS 230304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230304
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-230430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IN...NORTHEAST KY...SOUTHERN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73...74...
VALID 230304Z - 230430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73, 74
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG TO LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION SPREADS EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT A LOCAL
EXTENSION OF WW 73 MAY OCCUR GIVEN SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF 04Z.
DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY BROKEN ARC OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM
SOUTHERN IN THROUGH CENTRAL OH HAS BEEN INCREASINGLY CONGEALING INTO
A BROADER LINEAR CLUSTER. THIS PROCESS HAS YIELDED A REDUCTION OF
THE MORE NUMEROUS HAIL CORES EARLIER THIS EVENING. BUT A
LONGER-LIVED, TAIL-END UPDRAFT OVER SOUTHERN IN HAS PRODUCED HAIL UP
TO GOLF BALL SIZE IN THE PAST HOUR. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE LOUISVILLE METRO
AREA. THIS SIMILAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE ARC HAS MORE
READILY ACCELERATED TOWARDS THE SLOWER COLD FRONT. IF AN ORGANIZED
CLUSTER CAN PERSIST, THIS MAY MERGE INTO THE FRONT AND AID IN A
BRIEF UPTICK IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN KY. STILL,
00Z CAM GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY INSISTENT ON CONVECTION DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE MODEST BUOYANCY AND WEAKENING OF LAPSE RATES.
..GRAMS.. 03/23/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...
LAT...LON 38388656 39508517 39678427 39888324 39968254 39938216
39728171 39218171 38768291 38328357 38048474 38048565
38218644 38388656
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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