308
ACUS01 KWNS 230540
SWODY1
SPC AC 230538
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM EASTERN GEORGIA
NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
.. OVERVIEW
A WESTERN RIDGE WILL SUPPORT NORTHWEST MIDLEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN US ON MONDAY. WITHIN THAT FLOW, A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TUESDAY MORNING.
.. EASTERN GEORGIA NORTHWARD TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LEAN AS VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACTS TO
LIMIT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY STRONGLY DEPENDENT UPON THE QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER, EVEN IF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS GREATER THAN
00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES, GENERALLY NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCY, POOR
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL FURTHER HINDER
SUSTAINED ROBUST THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH, ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
..MARSH/WENDT.. 03/23/2026
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