513
ACUS48 KWNS 230900
SWOD48
SPC AC 230859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
..DISCUSSION
..THURSDAY/DAY 4 AND FRIDAY/DAY 5
STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY. AT LOW-LEVELS, MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
NORTHEAST MISSOURI EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OHIO, WHERE A THREAT AREA HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MINIMAL.
..SATURDAY/DAY 6 TO MONDAY/DAY 8
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. IN ITS
WAKE, A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH
OF THE NATION, MAKING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY IN MOST
AREAS. ON MONDAY, SOME MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD RETURN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WHERE TO OCCUR, THEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WOULD BE MOSTLY LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER, THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE EXTENDED RANGE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 03/23/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page