880
ACUS03 KWNS 241926
SWODY3
SPC AC 241925
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
..SYNOPSIS
A LOW-AMPLITUDE BUT INTENSE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE
FAR NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY, AND
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. COOLING ALOFT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY, WITH GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT SOUTH OF THE UPPER JET.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN NE INTO
EASTERN ONTARIO OR SOUTHWEST QUEBEC THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE MAIN
LOW JUMPING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC OR THE MARITIMES.
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL BE A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL
PROCEED INTO NORTHERN MO, IL, IN AND OH BY 00Z. A BROAD FETCH OF MID
50S F TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY NARROW PLUME OF BUOYANCY WHERE IT REMAINS
UNCAPPED.
THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ALONG THE FRONT, MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
ALOFT, AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF
SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AFFECTING
PARTS OF IL, IN, AND OH.
..IL/IN/OH - LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION, ALLOWING FOR FULL
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL DEVELOP, THOUGH A
CAPPING INVERSION WILL EXIST AROUND 800 MB INITIALLY. DESPITE THE
CAP, STRONG LIFT NEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT STORMS,
LIKELY SUPERCELLS, AFTER 21Z AND PERHAPS CLOSER TO 00Z.
SHEAR PROFILES WILL FEATURE LONG HODOGRAPHS, WITH A DEGREE OF
LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT RESULTING IN MODERATE SRH VALUES. AS
THE CAP BREAKS, ROBUST CELLS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OVER 2.00" DIAMETER EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LINEAR FORCING MECHANISM, THE FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CELLULAR STORM MODE FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK,
ESPECIALLY FOR CELLS THAT PROPAGATE RIGHTWARD.
WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT, STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS HEATING IS LOST, RESULTING IN A
RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THE
NARROW CORRIDOR AT THIS FORECAST RANGE, AND THERMODYNAMIC
UNCERTAINTIES, WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR ANY POTENTIAL
CATEGORICAL UPGRADE.
..JEWELL.. 03/24/2026
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