762
ACUS02 KWNS 250558
SWODY2
SPC AC 250556
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. VERY LARGE HAIL, A FEW TORNADOES, AND SEVERE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
..SYNOPSIS
LATEST GOES WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER WAVE ENCROACHING
UPON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AS IT ROUNDS THE APEX OF A STOUT UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER
THE WEST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS, REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE THURSDAY.
EARLY-MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE EARLY STAGES OF LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE TX GULF COAST INTO THE PLAINS. WHILE
MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY WEAK, A PLUME OF UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT. STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN A DESTABILIZING AIR
MASS, COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER
WAVE, WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
..MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN REGION AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON
A PLUME OF RETURNING MOISTURE. STOUT CAPPING AT THE BASE OF AN EML
WILL LIKELY LIMIT INITIAL STORM COVERAGE, AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS
(FEATURING 40-50 KNOT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES) WILL PROMOTE
ORGANIZATION OF DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FOR AT LEAST AN
HOUR OR TWO. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
(CHARACTERIZED BY SCP VALUES UPWARDS OF 8-12), LARGE TO VERY LARGE
(2-3 INCHES IN DIAMETER) HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR HOW LONG STORM MODES WILL REMAIN DISCRETE WITH LATEST HRRR,
RRFS, AND MPAS SOLUTIONS ALL SUGGESTING RELATIVELY QUICK UPSCALE
GROWTH ALONG THE FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. THESE SOLUTIONS APPEAR
REASONABLE GIVEN STRONG FRONTAL ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW
PREDOMINANTLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY MODULATE THE
DURATION/COVERAGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT HAIL THREAT, AND WOULD FAVOR A
SCATTERED SEVERE WIND THREAT DOWNSTREAM INTO IN AND OH.
REGARDLESS, 200-400 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES, INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO IF SUPERCELLS CAN BE MAINTAINED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, THE CONSENSUS AMONG HREF/REFS
SOLUTIONS IS A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK CORRIDOR
TOWARDS NORTHERN IL/IN, SOUTHERN LOWER MI, AND NORTHWEST OH. 15%
HAIL AND WIND PROBABILITIES WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. MORE ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT ALONG
THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MO, BUT CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE WEST OF
THE MS RIVER IS LIMITED DUE TO DISPLACEMENT FROM THE RICHER MOISTURE
AND STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT.
..MOORE.. 03/25/2026
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