960
ACUS03 KWNS 250716
SWODY3
SPC AC 250715
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED.
..SYNOPSIS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A STRONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH FROM
THE UPPER OH VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE, BUT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT
MIGRATES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SOUTH
OF THE OH VALLEY. SEASONALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS (MID TO UPPER 50S)
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN VA
WILL LIKELY YIELD A POCKET OF MODEST BUOYANCY (100-250 J/KG MLCAPE
AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -1 C) WHERE THUNDERSTORM RE-DEVELOPMENT IS
PROBABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
REGION, PALTRY BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITIES AND
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT
EXTENDED-RANGE RRFS AND MPAS SOLUTIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LIMITED
CONVECTIVE SIGNALS OVER THE CAROLINAS.
..MOORE.. 03/25/2026
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