169
ACUS01 KWNS 251920
SWODY1
SPC AC 251918
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT.
..20Z UPDATE
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE D1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..THORNTON.. 03/25/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1050 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT OVER MOST OF
THE CONUS TODAY, BUT WITH SEVERAL SMALL AREAS OF SOME CONCERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE INCLUDE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN
PLAINS, MID/UPPER MS VALLEY, AND FL.
..FLORIDA
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT LIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA, WITH
STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S LEADING TO MODERATE
AFTERNOON CAPE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST-COAST SEA-BREEZE AND ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK, BUT COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF HAIL OR GUSTY WIND.
THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME.
..IL/IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION OVER IA, SPREADING EASTWARD INTO IL. SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE RISK OF SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
IN THIS REGION, ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE ROOTED IN THE MID-LEVELS
AND UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY SEVERE RISK. AFTER DARK, MORE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN IL AND MUCH OF IN, BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
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