495
ACUS02 KWNS 261628
SWODY2
SPC AC 261626
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY.
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, MOVING OFFSHORE BY EARLY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE (UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F
DEWPOINTS) WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5-7 C/KM ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION, AND WILL AID IN WEAK DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE
FRONT. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN CAPPING ACROSS VA
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NC, STRONGER HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT MIXING AND
EROSION OF WEAK MIDLEVEL CAPPING. A COUPLE OF SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER, OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MOSTLY ANAFRONTAL CONVECTIVE PROCESSES.
FURTHER WEST, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING
NEAR/JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT THROUGH THE DAY.
..LEITMAN.. 03/26/2026
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