387
FNUS21 KWNS 261658
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
VALID 261700Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
THE ELEVATED AND CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPANDED NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS RESPECTIVELY. IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE CLIMBING INTO THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 90S WHILE RH FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WARM/DRY CONDITIONS, COUPLED WITH
BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, WILL FAVOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ATOP INCREASINGLY RECEPTIVE FUELS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
BE FURTHER EXACERBATED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ABRUPT NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING.
THE CRITICAL AREA WAS ALSO EXPANDED INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST
KS, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 90S AMID
SINGLE-DIGIT RH AND BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. GIVEN THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM/DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ATOP RECEPTIVE FUELS AND THE
STRONG POST-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING, THE EXPANSION IS
WARRANTED.
FARTHER WEST, THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPANDED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SHALLOW CUMULUS IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, AND AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IMPINGE ON THE AREA, AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE DRY FUELS.
ELSEWHERE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (SEE BELOW) REMAINS ON TRACK.
..WEINMAN.. 03/26/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0145 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY AS A SUBTLE, MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEFORE EJECTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. A SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN WHILE A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
..PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
DRY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE FAVORED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT, WITH SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED TO
OVERLAP VERY LOW RH OF 5-15% ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES, NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA, AND EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS. FARTHER SOUTH, VERY LOW RH OF
5-10% WILL OVERLAP WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH (LOCALLY HIGHER
IN TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS) IN THE LEE OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
WITH RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S F
AIDING IN RAPID DRYING OF FINER FUELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
AN ABRUPT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY,
WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO EXISTING WILDFIRES OR POTENTIAL NEW
IGNITIONS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS WHERE WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST TO OVERLAP RECEPTIVE
FUELS AND RH OF 10-15%. FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, WESTERN OKLAHOMA, AND INTO PORTIONS OF TEXAS
BIG COUNTRY, RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE MARGINAL (RANGING
BETWEEN 20-30%) OWING TO SOME NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER,
STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND RECEPTIVE
FUELS SHOULD STILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET (30-40+ KTS AT 850 MB) COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WILL ALSO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA, ESPECIALLY FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
..EASTERN GREAT BASIN
SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH (LOCALLY
HIGHER) AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AMID DRYING FUELS AND RH
VALUES OF 10-20%. THIS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST.
..SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT,
IMPINGING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED, DRY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MINIMAL PRECIPITATION OVER A VERY
RECEPTIVE FUELSCAPE PRECEDED BY RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 F SHOULD SUPPORT A HIGHER IGNITION EFFICIENCY
ACROSS THE AREA.
..NORTHEASTERN/EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEP, DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER (LCLS AS HIGH AS 3-4 KM AGL) MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED, DRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AMID MEAGER INSTABILITY
(50-150 J/KG MUCAPE) ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN AND
EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND
CRITICAL FUELS SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED IGNITION EFFICIENCY.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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