986
ACUS03 KWNS 290725
SWODY3
SPC AC 290724
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
..SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVE.
BY EARLY TUESDAY, THIS LOW WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING EASTWARD,
REACHING SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 12 UTC WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE
MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THOUGH MORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TX, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN.
..GREAT LAKES
RESIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE ONGOING BY 12 UTC
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
EAST/NORTHEAST WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG LIKELY BY
21-00 UTC. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND 35-45 KNOT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD
PROMOTE ORGANIZED CONVECTION - MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS AND/OR LINEAR SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS WILL
MOST LIKELY BE THE PREDOMINANT HAZARDS GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLUSTERED/LINEAR STORM MODES, THOUGH SOME TORNADO THREAT MAY EMERGE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL BE
REGIONALLY GREATEST ON THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE RETURNING
MOISTURE.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL LIKELY EMERGE ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK SOUTHWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL TX BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LEE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST AWAY
FROM THE BOUNDARY, AND WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE BASE OF AN EML WILL
MOST LIKELY PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, A FEW DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS HINT THAT DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WIND
PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION HINT THAT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AND COULD POSE A SEVERE THREAT. WHILE THIS POTENTIAL IS
NOTED, ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO IS LOW, AND ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL MOST LIKELY STRUGGLE TO BE MAINTAINED OWING
TO WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND FAIRLY DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS.
..MOORE.. 03/29/2026
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