789
ACUS01 KWNS 291228
SWODY1
SPC AC 291226
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA, FAR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND IN SOUTH
FLORIDA.
..SYNOPSIS
SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY AS MID-LEVEL FLOW
TRENDS MORE WESTERLY AND SURFACE PRESSURE LOWERS OVER THE PLAINS.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PLAINS TROUGHING AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BY EARLY TOMORROW (MONDAY), MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY
EXTEND FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO THE MID-SOUTH, WITH 60S DEWPOINTS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
DESPITE THIS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ONLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WILL
BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AZ, SOUTH FL, AND A SMALL PART THE
SOUTHEAST LA COAST. ACROSS SOUTH FL A WEAKENING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LA COAST IN THE CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SURFACE RIDGING.
PREDOMINANTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AZ WHERE STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR
BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. GIVEN THE HIGH LCLS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, STRONG
DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, LIMITED UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND
PERSISTENCE SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..MOSIER/MARSH.. 03/29/2026
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