402
FNUS21 KWNS 291642
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VALID 291700Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. MODEST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND LEE
SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
SUPPORT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TODAY.
..APPALACHIANS
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS 10F ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS
AND SURROUNDING REGION. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15% TO BRING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TODAY. A GENERAL EXPANSION OF EXISTING ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WAS
WARRANTED GIVEN CURRENT RH TRENDS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY BELOW
20% AMID RECEPTIVE AND DORMANT FUELS.
..SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT WESTWARD EXTENSION OF CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS INTO
CENTRAL WY WHERE WEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND RH FALLING CLOSE TO 15%
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON RH CLOSER TO 10% IS LIKELY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN WY ALTHOUGH WITH WEAKER WINDS.
..SOUTHERN ARIZONA
ISOLATED, PRIMARILY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON AS AN MCV ACROSS THE SONORAN DESERT EDGES
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST, PROMOTING EVAPORATIVE
FORCING AND MINIMAL SURFACE RAINFALL. ABNORMALLY DRY FUELS COULD
SUPPORT NEW IGNITIONS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AZ.
..WILLIAMS.. 03/29/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0150 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL OVERSPREAD THE CONUS TODAY, WITH AN
EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE POISED TO TRAVERSE THE INTERIOR WEST
THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS, RESULTING IN DRY WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. BY AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING, RH MAY DROP TO OR BELOW 15
PERCENT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. 15+ MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST, WITH WESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED OVER WYOMING, AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
LIKELY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, WARRANTING WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS GIVEN DRY FUELS. PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING MAY
EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXCEEDING 20
MPH AMID 10-15 PERCENT RH, WITH CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS MAINTAINED.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA, THE APPROACH OF A
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FROM MEXICO, AMID SCANT BUOYANCY, MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF A DEEP, DRY BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING TO NEARLY 500 MB,
MOST OF THE RAIN FROM STORMS SHOULD EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
SURFACE, WITH LIGHTNING POTENTIALLY OCCURRING WITHIN DRY FUEL BEDS.
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
SCENARIO.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, 10-15 MPH SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS, AMID A PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR (YIELDING RH
POTENTIALLY BELOW 25 PERCENT IN SPOTS), WILL SUPPORT APPRECIABLE
WILDFIRE-SPREAD POTENTIAL GIVEN DRY FUELS. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THESE CONDITIONS AS WELL.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page