600
ACUS03 KWNS 291915
SWODY3
SPC AC 291914
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND
OHIO...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST. DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL ARE MOST LIKELY. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH LOCALIZED HAIL/WIND.
..SYNOPSIS
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, WITH 50+ KT 500 MB WINDS EXTENDING
AS FAR SOUTH AS IL/IN/OH. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS WI AND LOWER MI DURING THE DAY, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN IN/IL INTO OK BY 00Z. THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PROCEED ACROSS NY AND INTO PA OVERNIGHT, TRAILING INTO
THE OH VALLEY AT THAT TIME.
A BROAD FETCH OF MOISTURE WITH 50S F TO LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, RESULTING IN
MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL EXIST BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT, AIDING FORWARD STORM MOTION AND SHEAR. STORMS
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL, THOUGH A DAYTIME
RISK IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF EARLY STORMS REMAIN STRONG ACROSS WI.
..FROM WI/IL INTO WESTERN NY/PA
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXIST REGARDING STORM EVOLUTION ON TUESDAY.
REGARDLESS, STRONG WINDS ALOFT ALONG WITH AREAS OF DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD SUPPORT CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL, ALONG WITH
SPORADIC LARGE HAIL.
ON TUESDAY MORNING, ONGOING STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF WI,
PERHAPS ALONG OR NORTH OF THE EAST-WEST STATIONARY FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING GUSTS OR HAIL, AND COULD
PERSIST INTO LOWER MI. THE AMOUNT OF EARLY STORMS MAY PLAY A ROLE IN
WHICH AREAS EXPERIENCE A SEVERE RISK LATER IN THE DAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL STABILIZING OUTFLOWS.
AS THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES FURTHER DURING THE AFTERNOON, STORMS
ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT, AND PERHAPS NEAR ANY LEFTOVER
OUTFLOWS FROM EARLY DAY STORMS. DEEP-LAYER MEAN WIND SPEEDS NEAR 50
KT WILL SUPPORT FAST-MOVING STORM COMPLEXES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL PRODUCTION AS WELL,
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHEAR WILL BE IN THE LOWER 3 KM. THAT SAID,
MESOSCALE FACTORS SUCH AS DESTABILIZATION NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES MAY
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK FOR RIGHTWARD-PROPAGATING
CELLS.
..SOUTHERN KS INTO WESTERN OK
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PLANS, NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
INHIBITION BUT LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAY YIELD A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN KS.
THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTIONS AND MODEST SHEAR.
..JEWELL.. 03/29/2026
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