758
ACUS03 KWNS 301111
SWODY3
SPC AC 301110
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION FROM TEXAS TO
LOUISIANA
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND WILL LIKELY
POSE A LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND THREAT.
..SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW RACES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST STALL
ACROSS OK NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND OH
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALOFT, AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY, AND WILL SUPPORT THE STEADY
STRENGTHENING OF A LEE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO INTO
SOUTHERN KS. NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY AS A WARM
FRONT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WITH
A SHARPENING DRYLINE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN OK
SOUTHWARD INTO TX. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
PROBABLE ALONG BOTH THE DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC.
...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN TX INTO
OK AND SOUTHERN KS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
AS INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS AN EML EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. DESPITE INITIAL CAPPING, ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE, COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, WILL LIKELY
ERODE INHIBITION AND SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND OK ALONG THE DRYLINE. INITIALLY
DISCRETE CELLS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS GIVEN FORECASTED
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS; HOWEVER, THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS THAT RELATIVELY QUICK
UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR BY THE EVENING HOURS AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW INCREASINGLY ORIENTS ALONG THE DRYLINE AND BROAD-SCALE ASCENT
STRENGTHENS WITH THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER WAVE. AS UPSCALE GROWTH
OCCURS, DAMAGING/SEVERE WINDS SHOULD BECOME THE PREDOMINANT THREAT.
WHILE MOST GUIDANCE SHOW THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, SPREAD PERSISTS
REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND TIMING OF THE UPPER
WAVE, WHICH BOTH MAY INFLUENCE THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
AND THE SUBSEQUENT SEVERE RISK.
..OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC
NEBULOUS BROAD-SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN PRIMARILY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
WESTERLY 25-30 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH
25-30 F DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT COULD POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISK.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LIMITED AT THIS TIME FOR RISK
PROBABILITIES, BUT A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED SEVERE RISK MAY
EMERGE.
..MOORE.. 03/30/2026
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