417
ACUS03 KWNS 301931
SWODY3
SPC AC 301930
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC.
..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY 40-50-KT MIDLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, A LEE
CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
WHILE A SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING DRYLINE MAKES LITTLE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING AND
PARALLEL LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS INHIBITION AT THE BASE
OF THE EML ERODES. AS THE ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE
TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE, EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 40 KT. THE ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND MODERATE SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY SHOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A
RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS. SOON AFTER,
STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING THE TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS/LINES AND COULD DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE
MCS. THIS WOULD FAVOR AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE GUSTS (SOME 75+
MPH POSSIBLE). CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY HIGHEST OVER
PARTS OF WEST/CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH TX, WHERE A SLGT RISK WAS ADDED.
..OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
DESPITE WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT, DIURNAL HEATING AMID
UPPER 50/LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. SUFFICIENT
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY AND AROUND 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT A COUPLE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL.
..WEINMAN.. 03/30/2026
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