241
ACUS11 KWNS 310349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310349
MIZ000-INZ000-310615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 310349Z - 310615Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY CAPABLE OF HAIL SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE NEED FOR
A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN, SHORT-TERM TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STEADILY INCREASED THROUGH LATE
EVENING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE STORMS ARE
OCCURRING NEAR/JUST NORTH OF A STATIONARY/SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT,
AND SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS VIA
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT/PERSISTENCE MAY ALSO OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN INDIANA VIA STORMS THAT ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEADILY ADVECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION, AND STRONG SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT SOME SEVERE
STORMS/ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NORTH OF THE FRONT. SOME DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT OR PERSISTENCE
INTO/ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND/OR FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA, ALTHOUGH INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL TEND TO BE A
DETRIMENTAL FACTOR.
..GUYER.. 03/31/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
LAT...LON 44608628 44408444 44318308 43728255 43078393 41908473
41398595 41498695 43208655 44608628
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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