046
ACUS11 KWNS 311555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311555
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-311800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA...NORTHWESTERN OHIO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 78...
VALID 311555Z - 311800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 78
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AND
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ORGANIZING CLUSTER WITH INCREASING RISK FOR
PRODUCING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH 3-4 PM EDT.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED AND TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH, ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES,
HAS BEEN SUPPORTING AN ONGOING AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVERSPREADING NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST. THIS HAS INCLUDED STRONGER EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SMALL TO OCCASIONALLY MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.
AS THIS DEVELOPS EASTWARD, INSOLATION DOWNSTREAM IS CONTRIBUTING TO
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION OF A MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY
CHARACTERIZED BY MID 50S+ F SURFACE DEW POINTS, BUT WITH A TONGUE OF
NEAR 60F+ DEW POINTS EMANATING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NOW
ADVECTING ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
CENTRAL INDIANA. AS THIS DEVELOPS TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
VICINITY THROUGH 19-20Z, UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INTENSIFY, GROW UPSCALE AND ORGANIZE IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODESTLY SHEARED 30-40 KT WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW.
THIS MAY SLOWLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS, IN ADDITION TO OCCASIONAL SEVERE
HAIL.
..KERR.. 03/31/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 41878347 41298279 40088354 39258667 39548851 40408788
41078654 42028576 41878347
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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