538
ACUS11 KWNS 311927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311926
OKZ000-TXZ000-312200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO SOTHWEST OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 311926Z - 312200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 21Z, WITH LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE, WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF KCDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
80S F ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR, WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 50S F.
GIVEN COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES, THIS IS RESULTING IN A DEEP LAYER
OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE PERHAPS INTO THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU ALREADY BEGINNING
TO FORM BENEATH THE CIRRUS AS OF 1930Z.
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND SPORADICALLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AFTER
21Z. THESE MAY BE INITIALLY HIGH BASED, BUT BACKING AND
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN OR INCREASE DEWPOINTS
INTO THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY UNCAPPED INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND NORTHWEST TX TO
SUSTAINED ANY ONGOING CELLS, ALTHOUGH CAPPING WILL BECOME A FACTOR
AFTER SUNSET AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO THE COOLER/MORE MOIST AIR
MASS.
AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS, SLOW-MOVING CELLS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL,
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOW OR AS STORMS
POTENTIALLY PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE SINKING COLD FRONT. THE WARM
AIR MASS AND DEEP MIXED LAYER SUGGEST SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL AS WELL.
..JEWELL/HART.. 03/31/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33540111 35030087 35130052 35419990 35829935 36009891
35889829 35449828 34309894 33749942 33499988 33330050
33540111
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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