816
ACUS01 KWNS 011253
SWODY1
SPC AC 011251
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT WED APR 01 2026
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC.
..SYNOPSIS
EARLY MORNING RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MO, JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MO. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TO ANOTHER LOW OVER NH. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ALSO EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST MO LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST OK, AND NORTHWEST TX TO ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS ON EACH OF THESE
BOUNDARIES TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MID MS VALLEY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
REGIONS AS WELL, WITH THE HIGHEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST TX THROUGH WESTERN OK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN CONTINUES QUICKLY EASTWARD, REACHING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY TOMORROW. GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS TO PUSH NORTH AS WARM
FRONT AND FOR MID 60S DEWPOINTS TO COVER MUCH OF OK BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP LAPSE
RATES (OVER 7 TO 7.5 DEG C PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT
MESOANALYSIS) WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY FROM
SOUTHWEST TX INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OK. HEIGHT FALLS
ATTENDANT TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER
THIS DESTABILIZING AIRMASS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, COMBINING WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND DRYLINE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE LIMITED, IF
PRESENT AT ALL, WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED FROM WESTERN
OK INTO SOUTHWEST TX. KINEMATIC PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS, BUT THE
PERSISTENT ASCENT AND EXTENSIVE NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SUGGEST THAT A DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
MAINTAIN AND A QUICK TRANSITION TO A CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS
PROBABLE. AS SUCH, STRONG GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
RISK. EVEN SO, STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL,
EVEN WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE. VERY LARGE HAIL (I.E. 2"+ IN
DIAMETER) IS POSSIBLE IF A DISCRETE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED. A
DISCRETE MODE COULD ALSO INCREASE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL, BUT HIGHER
PROBABILITIES (I.E. 10%) WERE NOT INTRODUCED GIVEN THE LIKELY STORM
INTERACTIONS AND EXPECTED QUICK CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION INTO A LINE.
SOME TORNADO RISK WILL STILL BE PRESENT WITHIN THE LINE,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE 00-04Z PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
LENGTHEN AMID A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET.
THIS STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A
SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTHEAST
OK/SOUTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL (WITH SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL AROUND 2") IS THE
PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS, MOST LIKELY EARLY IN THEIR
CONVECTIVE CYCLES.
..OHIO VALLEY INTO MID-ATLANTIC
ONGOING CLUSTER OVER MO WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME, WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS
DESTABILIZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A REINTENSIFICATION OF
THIS CLUSTER AND/OR NEW DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE MODEST BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING GUSTS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE (AND ATTENDANT GREATEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL) IS EXPECTED OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
..MOSIER/BENTLEY.. 04/01/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page