638
ACUS03 KWNS 011927
SWODY3
SPC AC 011926
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT WED APR 01 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...
..SUMMARY
AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A
RISK FOR TORNADOES WHILE ADVANCING TOWARD TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
..DISCUSSION
WHILE AN INITIAL SURFACE CYCLONE WEAKENS NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHEAST
WHILE STALLING NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY, AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE
LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. IT
APPEARS THAT THE INTERSECTION OF THIS FRONT AND A PACIFIC FRONT
ADVANCING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR A
MODEST SURFACE CYCLONE, WHICH GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS WILL
WEAKEN WHILE MIGRATING EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
AND OCCLUDING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT AND DRYLINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
BOUNDARY-LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SIMILAR DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER, PERHAPS INTO
PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
AIDED BY MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH, THEIR APPEARS A CONSIDERABLE SIGNAL IN LATEST MODEL OUTPUT
THAT THE EVOLUTION OF A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ADVANCING SQUALL LINE IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER AN INITIAL PERIOD WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL, WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND A FEW EMBEDDED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
MESO-VORTICES WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREATS AS CONVECTION GROWS
UPSCALE AND FORWARD PROPAGATES.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL INTERSECTION NEAR THE
MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER VICINITY COULD BECOME A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR
HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER, GIVEN INITIALLY COOL/STABLE
AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT, AND THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE
SURFACE CYCLONE, THIS REMAINS UNCLEAR. HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE FOCUSED AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI, CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS IN LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES FOR THIS
PERIOD.
..KERR.. 04/01/2026
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