965
ACUS01 KWNS 011959
SWODY1
SPC AC 011957
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT WED APR 01 2026
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC.
..20Z UPDATE OK/KS/MO
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW RAPID
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OK INTO SOUTHEASTERN KS AND
SOUTHWESTERN MO. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE RAPIDLY
TONIGHT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS EJECTS
EASTWARD, AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A BROAD AREA OF THE
FRONT. SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH TAKES PLACE AFTER 00Z. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC
ASCENT SHOULD FAVOR A RAPID STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
SHEAR. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND SOME
TORNADOES WITH REMAINING SUPERCELLS OR LINEAR SEGMENTS. EXPAND THE
5% TORNADO AND 15% WIND AREAS FARTHER EAST INTO MO WHERE CAM
GUIDANCE SHOWS STORM PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PRIOR
OUTLOOK. SCATTERED SEMI-DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
LIKELY ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS WEST/SOUTHWESTERN
OK INTO WESTERN NORTH TX THIS AFTERNOON AMID FILTERED HEATING OF A
MOISTENING AIR MASS. INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL POSE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT (AND POSSIBLE
SOME QLCS TORNADO RISK) WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER DARK AS STORMS
CONGEAL AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD BENEATH AN INTENSIFYING 40-50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET.
..OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
MODERATE BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH SUPERCELLS OR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS FROM NORTHEAST KY
INTO SOUTHERN OH AND PARTS OF WV/VA. DAMAGING GUSTS, AND PERHAPS
SOME HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
..LYONS.. 04/01/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1113 AM CDT WED APR 01 2026/
..OK/TX
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ. THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER
WEST TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RESULTING IN RAPID AND
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OK. ACTIVITY WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
..NORTHERN OK/KS/SOUTHWEST MO
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT/MIX
NORTHWARD TODAY, RESULTING IN RAPID MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION OF
THE AIR MASS. MOST CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW EVENING SUPERCELLS IN VICINITY OF THIS
RETREATING BOUNDARY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
..OH VALLEY INTO MID-ATLANTIC
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN OH
INTO SOUTHERN PA, WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND STRONG
HEATING TO THE SOUTH. THIS STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL
CAM SOLUTIONS TO FORM OVER NORTHEAST KY/SOUTHERN OH AND TRACK
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHEAST PA INTO THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS OVER PARTS OF MD/VA, WITH
A SIMILAR RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST CELLS.
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