848
ACUS11 KWNS 012039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012039
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-012215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0319
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT WED APR 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX...WESTERN/CENTRAL
OK...SOUTHERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 012039Z - 012215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.
DISCUSSION...HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF TX/OK, ALONG/SOUTH OF A NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT.
STEEP LAPSE RATES WERE NOTED WITHIN THE 800-500 MB LAYER FROM THE
18Z LMN SOUNDING, THOUGH WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES NOTED ABOVE 500 MB
WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS PLUME. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S F AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE
1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, AND ALONG/EAST
OF A DIFFUSE DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST TX.
WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW (AS DEPICTED BY REGIONAL VWPS AND OBJECTIVE
MESOANALYSES) IS CURRENTLY RATHER MODEST, AN INCREASE IN BOTH
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED WITH TIME INTO THE
EVENING, IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. INCREASING ASCENT AND WEAKENING MLCINH SHOULD EVENTUALLY
RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH
ADDITIONAL WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.
INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN BAND
OF SUPERCELLS, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL,
LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS, AND EVENTUALLY A TORNADO THREAT AS LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/SRH CONTINUES TO INCREASE. GUIDANCE VARIES REGARDING THE
DURATION OF DISCRETE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH
OCCURS, BUT A CONDITIONAL STRONG TORNADO THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
PERSISTENT SUPERCELL INTO THE EVENING. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THESE
THREATS.
..DEAN/HART.. 04/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33510056 35969981 37479861 37729760 37289707 36479688
35209767 34279810 33429860 32739883 32900004 33510056
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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