485
ACUS11 KWNS 012053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012052
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-012245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT WED APR 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK...SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 012052Z - 012245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MO, HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY FROM PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO, NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
DIFFUSE NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT. OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSES AND THE
18Z LMN SOUNDING (MODIFIED FOR OBSERVATIONS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT)
SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE HAS RISEN INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE, WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 800-500 MB LAYER. WITH SOME RESIDUAL
CAPPING AND GENERALLY MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, POTENTIAL FOR STORM
REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IS UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER, SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITHIN A MODEST LOW-LEVEL
WARM-ADVECTION REGIME.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY MODEST AS OF MID AFTERNOON, BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A SUPERCELL OR
TWO COULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT, WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR/SRH WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED. ANY SUCH
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR HAIL, LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS STILL EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING, AS THE
PRIMARY MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE
REGION.
..DEAN/HART.. 04/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 36319669 37299675 37719630 37969597 38149571 38479498
38489371 38059282 37609265 37159296 36909337 36819367
36519490 36179604 36319669
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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