158
ACUS11 KWNS 012226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012225
TXZ000-020030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT WED APR 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 012225Z - 020030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE
IMMEDIATE HOT/DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX.
WHILE IT IS UNCLEAR IF THESE EARLY STORMS WILL POSE A SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE RISK IN THE NEAR TERM, A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
AROUND 40 KT OF MIDLEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ORTHOGONAL TO THE
DRYLINE COULD PROMOTE A COUPLE SEVERE DOWNBURTS AND SPORADIC LARGE
HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT MATURE. WITH TIME, ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INFLUENCES THE
AREA AND ENHANCES SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE.
ELONGATING/MOSTLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS (EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASING TO
AROUND 50 KT) AND STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS WITH A RISK OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WITH TIME, THESE STORMS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AND
POSE A CONTINUED/INCREASING RISK OF SCATTERED SEVERE WINDS. WHILE
LESS LIKELY, A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS
INTERCEPT A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.
..WEINMAN/LEITMAN.. 04/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 30710247 31280220 32680128 32980071 33090007 32979954
32569930 31759948 30290075 29890145 29850220 30110252
30710247
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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