624
ACUS11 KWNS 020043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020042
MOZ000-020245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0326
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT WED APR 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 87...
VALID 020042Z - 020245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 87 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN TORNADO RISK APPEARS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.
DISCUSSION...WHILE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY BE TEMPERING OVERALL STRENGTHENING, RECENT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF MODEST
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE PAST
30-60 MINUTES. PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS, 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND
AROUND 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF DEVELOPING DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE WARM
FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE BACKED
SURFACE FLOW, 50-100 M2/S2 0-500 M SRH, AND MID-60S F DEWPOINTS ARE
NOTED VIA LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION GIVEN
LIMITED STRENGTHENING OBSERVED THUS FAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
TO MOVE NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DUE TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW
ORIENTATION. SHOULD A SUPERCELL OR TWO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED,
HOWEVER, AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL, ALONG WITH A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS, APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
..CHALMERS.. 04/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 37789422 38019450 38399446 38609427 38729394 38709345
38589286 38449218 38279188 38119181 37769200 37609242
37579307 37789422
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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