970
ACUS03 KWNS 020732
SWODY3
SPC AC 020730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU APR 02 2026
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TEXAS GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE (CURRENTLY NOTED IN WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST) IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS, AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE NORTHEAST,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH FROM THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN GULF. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING, SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TX GULF COAST INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.
..UPPER OH VALLEY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY BY 12 UTC SATURDAY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME DEGREE OF RE-INTENSIFICATION AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SUPPORT INCREASING BUOYANCY AND
DIMINISH INHIBITION. 30-40 KNOT FLOW THROUGH THE 1-6 KM LAYER WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND PERHAPS SPORADIC HAIL. GIVEN THE WEAKENING OF
THE SYNOPTIC LOW AND BROAD-SCALE ASCENT, OVERALL COVERAGE OF INTENSE
CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED. HOWEVER, HIGHER RISK PROBABILITIES MAY BE
WARRANTED IF GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS A GREATER COVERAGE OF ROBUST
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS.
..LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TX GULF COAST
ONGOING CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS EAST TX EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME DEGREE OF
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED AS IT MIGRATES
EAST TOWARDS THE MS RIVER WHERE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT HIGHER BUOYANCY (MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 1500-2000 J/KG).
DISPLACEMENT FROM THE PRIMARY UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTH WILL YIELD
MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR VALUES (GENERALLY AROUND 25 KNOTS),
BUT THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN ATTENDANT SPORADIC
HAIL/WIND RISK. BASED ON LATEST CAM GUIDANCE, THE GREATEST SEVERE
RISK WILL LIKELY EMERGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO NORTHERN LA,
THOUGH SOME SOLUTIONS HINT THAT ROBUST CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AS FAR
SOUTHWEST AS THE TX GULF COAST.
..MOORE.. 04/02/2026
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