491
ACUS11 KWNS 021729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021728
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-022000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0332
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU APR 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN/EASTERN
IA...NORTHERN IL...EXTREME SOUTHWEST WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 021728Z - 022000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. EVENTUAL TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY, THOUGH TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION...A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A 998 MB SURFACE
LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO BORDER, WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NE AND
EASTERN KS. A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
INTO NORTHERN MO, THEN BENDS EAST-NORTHEAST FROM NORTHEAST MO INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MO/FAR NORTHEAST KS, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CUMULUS NOTED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL
FLOW (40-60 KT IN THE LOWEST 2 KM PER REGIONAL VWPS) WILL ALLOW THE
WARM FRONT TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW,
WITH A DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN IL BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
MLCAPE INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG (LOCALLY GREATER WHERE STRONGER
HEATING OCCURS) AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE
A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MODEST
BUOYANCY, POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MATURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
IF ANY ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAN BE SUSTAINED, THEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/SRH WILL SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW. LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE, DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
SUPERCELL-FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES. EVENTUAL TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE
IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH TIMING REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
..DEAN/HART.. 04/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40709476 41489346 42259169 42599085 42648913 42048870
41468889 40858994 40189097 39599377 39819450 40709476
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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