159
FNUS22 KWNS 021858
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT THU APR 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...
..AFTERNOON UPDATE
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ELEVATED RISK WERE TRIMMED FROM
AREAS THAT SAW APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN THE LAST 48 HOURS. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS D2/FRIDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, TRANSPORTING A BREEZY POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
SOUTHWARD. BEHIND THE FRONT, SPOTTY 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY OVERLAP WITH RH BELOW 20 PERCENT. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTERSECTION OF STRONGEST WINDS AND LOW RH,
CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN WITHHELD, THOUGH LOCALIZED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN EAST-CENTRAL CO AND NORTHWEST
KS. FARTHER SOUTH, A FEW HOURS OF STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF
20+ MPH (GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH) AMID 10-15 PERCENT RH ARE EXPECTED IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN CO, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CONTINUATION OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. EXISTING GUIDANCE AMBIVALENCE ON
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL AND RH REDUCTION BEHIND THE FRONT
ENHANCES UNCERTAINTY IN FIRE ENVIRONMENT DURATION. HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRE SPREAD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT, THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR BOTH
NEW IGNITIONS AND ANY ONGOING WILDFIRES.
..SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO THE LOW/HIGH DESERT OF CALIFORNIA
A LOCALLY STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WILL PEAK D2/FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH (GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH) AND VERY LOW RH OF 10-15 PERCENT TRAVERSE SOUTHERN NV, THE
LOW/HIGH DESERT OF CA, AND THE WIND-PRONE AREAS SURROUNDING THE LOS
ANGELES METRO. THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR AREAS WITH DRIER FINE FUELS.
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA/WILLIAMS.. 04/02/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0229 AM CDT THU APR 02 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A POTENT MID-LEVEL, SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON D2/FRIDAY, WHILE AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
..CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COUPLED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
WILL YIELD A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, FAVORING A DRY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST IN THE LEE OF THE SANDIA MANZANO
MOUNTAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WITH
SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 MPH FORECAST TO OVERLAP
VERY LOW RH OF AROUND 10-15% AND RECEPTIVE FUELS. WESTERLY WINDS OF
15-20 MPH AND VERY LOW RH OF 10-20% WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS WITH ONLY
A MARGINAL INCREASE IN RH EXPECTED. THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH ANY NEW IGNITIONS OR ONGOING WILDFIRES AS
IT COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR FIRE SPREAD.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AMID VERY LOW RH
OF 10-20% AND RECEPTIVE FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW COUPLES WITH
A DRY, POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DURATION OF
OVERLAP BETWEEN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20+ MPH AND RH VALUES
BELOW 15% PRECLUDES THE ADDITION OF CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS
TIME, BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO THE LOW/HIGH DESERT OF CALIFORNIA
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF
20-30 MPH AMID VERY LOW RH OF 10-15% (LOCALLY LOWER). WHILE ELEVATED
LIVE FUEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, THIS WIND/RH COMBINATION MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED WILDFIRE
SPREAD POTENTIAL.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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