428
ACUS11 KWNS 022041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022041
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-022215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT THU APR 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN IA...NORTHWEST IL...FAR NORTHEAST
MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 89...
VALID 022041Z - 022215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 89 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES, HAIL, AND SEVERE GUSTS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA AND FAR NORTHERN MO, IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF
AN EASTWARD-MOVING MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHWARD, WITH ONGOING STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY BROKEN LINE OF STORMS, A SUPERCELL HAS RECENTLY
INTENSIFIED NEAR OTTUMWA, IA, WHERE 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
WERE MAXIMIZED ON THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. THIS SUPERCELL RECENTLY
PRODUCED 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL. WHILE SURFACE WINDS SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT REMAIN SOMEWHAT VEERED, STRONG FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
(50+ KT AT 1-2 KM AGL PER AREA VWPS) IS SUPPORTING 0-1 KM SRH OF
GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2, SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH
THIS SUPERCELL AND ANY OTHER WARM-SECTOR SUPERCELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST, CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST MO/SOUTHEAST IA, AND A SUPERCELL OR TWO COULD EVOLVE
WITHIN THIS REGION WITH TIME, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS.
..DEAN.. 04/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40299322 41199266 41759303 42209217 42549095 42459048
42259021 41808992 41258988 40568992 39849048 39669239
40299322
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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