877
ACUS11 KWNS 022049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022048
ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-022245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT THU APR 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS....SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 022048Z - 022245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY AND
PROBABLY WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST THE RISK FOR
A TORNADO OR TWO. IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN THAT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY BEEN INITIATING
IN A BROKEN BAND NORTH OF POPLAR BLUFF MO TOWARD THE CARBONDALE IL
VICINITY. THIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG A CORRIDOR OF BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK DEVELOPING SURFACE PRESSURE FALL
AXIS, NEAR THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGHING PROGRESSING
ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ONLY WEAK MIXED-LAYER
CAPE. THIS MAY NOT IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS INTO
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL VICINITY, BASED ON LATEST RAPID REFRESH
GUIDANCE. EVEN SO, THIS APPEARS FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS, INCLUDING 40-50
KT SPEEDS AROUND 850 MB. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THE
EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR.
..KERR/HART.. 04/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...
LAT...LON 38328857 37558852 35189028 35039105 36719087 38388970
38328857
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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