261
ACUS11 KWNS 022211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022211
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-022345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT THU APR 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 022211Z - 022345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION. WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.
DISCUSSION...SOME RECENT INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN EVIDENT WITH A
BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN, WITH A COUPLE OF AREAS OF STRENGTHENING
EMBEDDED ROTATION NOTED. AHEAD OF THIS LINE, TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED TO THE MID-70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AMID FILTERED DIURNAL HEATING. COUPLED
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F, THIS IS SUPPORTING WEAK BUOYANCY OF
250-500 J/KG DESPITE MEAGER LAPSE RATES ALOFT (5.5-6.0 C/KM PER
LATEST MESOANALYSIS). WHILE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST
AT BEST, FAVORABLE KINEMATICS, INCLUDING 150-250 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH
AMID STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW (40-50+ KTS AT 1 KM AGL PER REGIONAL
VWPS), MAY SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY STRONGER CORES THAT CAN BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED.
..CHALMERS/SMITH.. 04/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 39268871 39668854 40388797 41138737 41568692 41968650
42328611 42368551 42108484 41708463 41198480 40648511
39908580 39288680 38988758 39088847 39268871
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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