554
ACUS11 KWNS 022240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022239
ILZ000-MOZ000-030045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0539 PM CDT THU APR 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 022239Z - 030045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE/PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
DOWNSTREAM FROM WW 89 FROM EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF STORM ACTIVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
TRENDS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WEAKENED NORTH OF I-70
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MO OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT/DRYLINE AS A DRYSLOT ALOFT
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS IS LIKELY SUPPRESSING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, CAMS AND WOFS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY 00Z NEAR
THE MS RIVER AND INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS AIRMASS HAS LARGELY RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60-64 F RANGE, RESULTING IN A
CORRIDOR OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEAR 40
KT ARE NOTED WITH STRONGER, BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS EVIDENT IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS IL, SUPPORTING SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES.
IF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR AND BECOME
SUSTAINED ACROSS THIS AREA, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE. TIMING AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE SOMETIME IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..LEITMAN/SMITH.. 04/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39309157 40848878 40848845 40688819 40148806 39028857
38548923 38199005 38109067 38219124 38499175 39309157
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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