097
ACUS11 KWNS 032015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032015
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-032215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IN/FAR NORTHERN KY INTO
OH...WESTERN/CENTRAL PA...NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032015Z - 032215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
WITHIN A BROAD PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR FROM PARTS OF IN/OH INTO
NORTHWEST PA/SOUTHWEST NY. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR, MLCAPE INCREASES
FROM AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN PA/SOUTHWEST NY, TO THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO IN AND WESTERN OH, WHERE
STRONGER HEATING HAS OCCURRED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-35 KT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION, THOUGH WITH ONLY MODEST
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, COVERAGE OF ROBUST
UPDRAFTS MAY TEND TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
THE 1-3 KM AGL LAYER WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IF ANY ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS OR A MARGINAL SUPERCELL CAN EVOLVE WITH TIME, THEN SOME
THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL COULD ALSO DEVELOP.
..DEAN/HART.. 04/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...
IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 38498499 38688655 39438648 40438468 41418099 41827994
42417858 42457778 42147742 41377759 40877863 40078042
39188316 38498499
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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