778
ACUS11 KWNS 032202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032201
TXZ000-040000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0345
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO STOCKTON
PLATEAU
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032201Z - 040000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS FORMING ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS THE
TEXAS BIG BEND REGION INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU WILL POSE A RISK OF
LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING SOUTH OF FORT
STOCKTON ALONG A TRAILING DRYLINE. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
(2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE) AND AROUND 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN MODEST (~7
C/KM), AMPLE BUOYANCY WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE (300-400 J/KG)
COUPLED WITH STRAIGHT, ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OF 2+ INCHES IN DIAMETER WITH ANY PERSISTENT
SUPERCELL. GIVEN THE DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING
WELL TO THE NORTH, STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
THUS, WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED, HOWEVER, SHOULD
SUPERCELLS TREND TOWARDS MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LONGER DURATION HAIL THREAT.
..CHALMERS/SMITH.. 04/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29550256 29350277 29100279 28880313 29150343 29480355
29870354 30270342 30920291 31290225 31130154 30630123
30060127 29740160 29680213 29550256
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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