941
ACUS11 KWNS 040024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040024
INZ000-ILZ000-040200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 94...
VALID 040024Z - 040200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 94 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS MAY ACCOMPANY ONGOING STORMS ALONG A
WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL IL.
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS HAVE MATURED ACROSS CENTRAL IL OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH MULTIPLE INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND AT LEAST
ONE BRIEF TORNADO REPORTED. THESE STORMS ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD
ALONG A WARM FRONT, WHERE SRH IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED. THE 00Z ILX
OBSERVED SOUNDING DEPICTS AN UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR, CHARACTERIZED BY
MODEST TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ATOP UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS, YIELDING
TALL AND RELATIVELY THIN MLCAPE (JUST UNDER 1000 J/KG). THIS
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS MODEST LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE, BUT LITTLE
UPPER-LEVEL ELONGATION. AS SUCH, IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO YIELD
SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL, AND
IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS SCENARIO WILL AMPLIFY.
NONETHELESS, DESPITE GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION THIS
EVENING, AN INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN
PERSISTENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHORT-TERM SEVERE (ANY HAZARD) WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL IL, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF ONGOING SUPERCELLS. THE SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THE TIME BEING FROM IROQUOIS
COUNTY IL INTO IN.
..SQUITIERI.. 04/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 40059049 40638988 41038841 41088706 40838636 40498651
40368731 40258831 40128933 40029016 40059049
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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