306
ACUS11 KWNS 040327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040327
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-040930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 040327Z - 040930Z
SUMMARY...MODERATE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RATES OF 0.10 TO PERHAPS 0.25 INCH PER THREE
HOURS.
DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL
IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA. TO THE NORTH OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY,
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING (NOTED
AROUND 850 MB PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS) WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF A BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD NOTED VIA
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. WITH THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME SUPPORTING A NOTABLE WARM NOSE WITHIN THE 850-700
MB LAYER (EVIDENT IN THE 00Z MPX OBSERVED SOUNDING) AND SURFACE WET
BULB TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 F, FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN,
EXTREME EASTERN MINNESOTA, AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RATES TO EXCEED 0.10, PERHAPS UP TO
0.25, INCH PER THREE HOURS.
WITH TIME, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD, YIELDING AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT INTO THE REST OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND
EXTREME NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
..CHALMERS.. 04/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 46518748 46268706 45838714 45368752 45048776 44848800
44718846 44788944 44888993 45179051 45369089 45529168
45599241 45609301 45649337 45879346 46319321 46559244
46639156 46679119 46749034 46808941 46718845 46518748
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