166
ACUS11 KWNS 040415
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040414
TXZ000-040545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0352
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 040414Z - 040545Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS, AS WARM AND MOIST AIR AROUND 850 MB CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE 00Z MAF OBSERVED SOUNDING SHOWED 3000 J/KG
MUCAPE OVER THE WARM SECTOR GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. WITH
LOW-LEVEL WAA SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AMID THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT, IT IS PLAUSIBLE
THAT THESE ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL. A SEVERE GUST MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF ANY
OF THE STORMS CAN CATCH UP TO THE COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH, SO WW ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
..SQUITIERI/SMITH.. 04/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 33810240 34250164 34360054 34199984 33739965 33349989
33260068 33270153 33440214 33590228 33810240
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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