538
ACUS11 KWNS 040633
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040632
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-040800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CDT SAT APR 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST-CENTRAL OK...WESTERN AR...AND SOUTHERN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 95...
VALID 040632Z - 040800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 95
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO REMAIN
POSSIBLE. IT IS UNCLEAR IF A DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS NEEDED, THOUGH
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN EXPANSIVE QLCS
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, A
NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED SEGMENT OF THE LINE IN FAR EAST-CENTRAL OK WILL
POSE THE GREATEST RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO INTO WESTERN AR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HERE, AROUND
40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ORIENTED ORTHOGONAL TO THE LINE, WHICH
IS FAVORING UPDRAFTS KEEPING PACE WITH THE GUST FRONT, AS WELL AS
NEW CELLS DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE. RELATIVELY
GREATER SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY (ALBEIT LIMITED) AND A 40-50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET (PER VWP DATA) NEAR THIS PORTION OF THE LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO. DECREASING BUOYANCY AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH EASTWARD EXTENT CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
DOWNSTREAM SEVERE RISK AND NEED FOR A NEW WATCH, THOUGH TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 04/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 35039499 35519476 35929443 36559380 37329352 37559329
37739278 37649230 37389202 36929197 36369218 35439288
34889366 34749437 34849479 35039499
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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